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While 96 percent of leaders project earnings growth in 2026, fewer than half plan to increase headcount, signaling a massive shift toward AI-driven efficiency

NEW YORK, June 9, 2026 /PRNewswire-PRWeb/ -- Capital One Business and Inc., the leading media brand and playbook for entrepreneurs and business leaders, have partnered on research that reveals new insights into how U.S. business leaders are navigating an increasingly complex economic and technological landscape. The polled 349 business leaders across multiple industries to explore the intersection of human intuition, AI deployment, and strategic growth. The findings highlight a shift toward "moderate optimism" and the importance of AI in leveling the playing field for smaller companies.

"Growing a business in today's environment requires scaling intelligence and utilizing it to speed up decision making," said Dan Arellano, a senior vice president with Capital One Business. "This data shows that founders continue to trust their intuition, preferring fast decision-making cycles to increase their rate of learning. As businesses evolve their use of AI, growth-oriented companies will increasingly speed up these learning cycles and continue to utilize speed as a competitive advantage."

Key Findings from Risk & Reward 2025

1. Confidence and Outlook: A Shift Toward Moderate Optimism

Confidence in the U.S. economy has seen a slight decline, with 51 percent of leaders expressing optimism for the next 12 months, compared with 55 percent last year. While the 2024 presidential election was the biggest uncertainty of last year, it has been replaced by concerns about inflation (40 percent) and geopolitical instability (39 percent).

The current business climate is perceived as less positive for industries and companies than it was last year. Sixty-seven percent of respondents describe the current business climate as positive for their industries (compared with 74 percent last year). The number of executives who consider the current business climate positive for their companies fell from 80 percent last year to 64 percent.

2. Growth Projections: Revenues and Earnings Are Up, but Headcounts Are Not

Business leaders are prioritizing efficiency over expansion. While a staggering 94 percent of companies expect an increase in revenue and 96 percent expect to increase earnings, only 47 percent plan to increase headcount. This suggests a trend toward doing more with less, likely fueled by cost-cutting measures and automation. Notably, over-investing in the workforce was cited as the second-highest financial risk by 43 percent of respondents. This drive for efficiency is also reflected in capital management. The financing option that tops the list this year is self-funding at 52 percent, as leaders lean into bootstrapping over external debt.

3. Technology: Intensifying as a Force for Change

Technology is the undisputed number-one force for achieving growth objectives. Sixty-five percent of companies are making significant investments in AI-driven business transformation, and 64 percent of leaders believe AI is leveling the playing field, making it possible for small and midsize companies to compete with much larger organizations. While only 14 percent of companies are currently realizing measurable business value from AI, 77 percent of business leaders say their companies will change or adjust their processes because of AI and other technology.

4. Leadership: Navigating Ambiguity With a Buck-Stops-Here Mindset

Despite uncertainty, 56 percent of leaders assess the level of uncertainty they face about business growth as low, citing their own judgment as the primary driver of success. The survey revealed a buck-stops-here mindset when making decisions, with 57 percent of leaders stating growth depends more on their decision-making than external factors. These leaders decisively favor a style that is fast (76 percent), intuition-driven (62 percent), and risk-tolerant (58 percent).

About the Survey

The Risk & Reward 2025 report is based on a survey of 349 business leaders devised by Capital One Business and Inc., and conducted by Inc. in the fourth quarter of 2025. The survey includes a range of entrepreneurs and executives from multiple industries and company sizes, to explore how they approach decision-making in the context of risk and reward, with 54 percent representing businesses with revenues between $1 million and $25 million, and 46 percent representing larger firms up to $500 million.

For more information about the survey and its findings, please visit .

About Inc.

Inc. is the leading media brand and playbook for the entrepreneurs and business leaders shaping our future. Through its journalism, Inc. aims to inform, educate, and elevate the profile of its community: the risk-takers, innovators, and ultra-driven go-getters who are creating the future of business. Inc. is published by Mansueto Ventures LLC, along with fellow leading business publication Fast Company. For more information, visit .

About Capital One Business:

Capital One offers a broad spectrum of financial products and services to consumers, small businesses, and commercial clients. Capital One Business offers a diverse suite of financial products, tools, and services designed specifically for small businesses, including credit cards with unlimited rewards and banking products and services. Capital One Business is committed to fueling the courageous entrepreneurial spirit that's at the heart of American small businesses. We are focused on listening to and learning from the millions of businesses we serve every day to make sure our products, services, and experiences work as hard as they do.

Media Contact

Alyssa Carroll, Inc., 1 (212) 389-5300, [email protected],

SOURCE Capital One Business and Inc.